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The war in Iran has no clear end goal.
Last week, Professors of History Bradley Birzer and Paul Rahe debated the legality of the current war in Iran (“It’s an illegal war,” “There’s nothing illegal here,” March 5). While the legal question is important, the more pressing issue, as Rahe pointed out, is whether the war is prudent. It is not.
Until now, the hallmark of the Trump administration’s foreign policy has been focused military operations. Last spring, U.S. forces targeted Houthi militant groups in Yemen who threatened Red Sea shipping. In the summer, Israeli and U.S. military forces conducted limited strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. In January, Delta Force conducted a late night raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
These operations shared a common theme. They had clearly defined objectives, were executed quickly, and avoided escalating into broader regional wars while still sending a strong message to America’s adversaries. The current war in Iran, Operation Epic Fury, breaks sharply from this pattern, pushing the conflict toward open-ended escalation.
Iran was once one of America’s closest allies in the Middle East. When the U.S.-backed Shah’s government was overthrown during the 1979 Iranian Revolution, it was not by a military coup but by a popular religious uprising led by Shiite clerics deeply hostile to the U.S. That anti-American sentiment remains embedded in Iran’s population and regime today. While the Iranian people may have hated their supreme leader, there was still mourning in the streets of Tehran when the U.S. killed him Feb. 28, as many viewed him as a unifying figure against the American “yankee infidel.”
While it is true that only a month ago mass protests rocked the nation, the demonstrations were ultimately crushed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and other regime security forces in a violent crackdown that left thousands dead and tens of thousands arrested. In the eyes of the regime and the Iranian people, America remains the infidel regardless of who rules in Tehran. If the people were interested in reinstating a revolt, something would have likely happened already.
Operation Epic Fury is not a limited strike but the beginning of an uncontrolled war, with a stated, unrealistic goal of regime change. When we pursued such a policy in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Libya, the results were disappointing. Iran may be ethnically diverse with some internal division, but the country remains largely united around Shiite Islam. According to a 2022 report by the State Department, roughly 90–95% of Iranians identify as Shia, making Iran the largest Shia-majority state in the world. This shared religious identity unifies the Iranians in the face of external threats, with the current war being existential to their very survival.
Iran has launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at America and its allies, killing seven American soldiers and wounding approximately 140, with thousands of additional casualties across the region. While the U.S. may intercept many incoming missiles, advanced defense systems are more expensive and limited in supply than Iran’s missiles. Over time, this imbalance favors Iran. Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah, Hamas and other such supporters, while damaged, remain active throughout the region, and security officials have warned that Iran or Hezbollah could activate sleeper cells abroad. Russia and China remain partners of Iran, and Russia has already provided satellite targeting assistance. This conflict could evolve into a proxy war.
Our current armed forces and two carrier strike groups cannot sustain a long-term deployment without considerable economic cost. Sooner or later, we will withdraw. Yet by entering this war, we have destabilized what had been a tense but predictable pattern of tit-for-tat confrontation with Iran. This war is not of a limited nature; we have undermined what little diplomatic space remained and made retaliation more likely than renewed diplomacy. Indeed their new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is more hardline than his late father ever was, with close ties to the Guard Corp, the very organization the U.S. now seeks to destroy.
The economic consequences are already visible. According to Reuters, oil prices in the U.S. have climbed to about $90.90 per barrel, while gasoline prices have surged roughly 17% to above $3.50 per gallon. Iran and its proxies have effectively disrupted two of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints: the Red Sea, which sees roughly 12–15% of global trade, and the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. These disruptions extend beyond oil and gas prices. Shipping through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz also carries large volumes of grain, fertilizer, and other agricultural inputs, meaning prolonged disruption may drive up food prices worldwide. At the same time, missile strikes are damaging the very systems that sustain the region’s oil, gas, and water supplies, meaning the economic consequences may persist long after shipping lanes reopen.
U.S. airstrikes alone will not solve this problem. We can bomb Iran repeatedly, sink their navy, and destroy their air force, but without a ground invasion by U.S. troops, which would result in another forever war, we cannot eliminate Iran’s missile production or topple the regime. We may have hit Iran hard, but a wounded, cornered wolf is a dangerous wolf. Iran will retaliate, and the consequences for regional stability, global economics, and innocent lives may be enormous for very little strategic gain.
Nicholas Mirochnikoff is a junior studying math and physics.
