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The Penn State Nittany Lions have won a single Big Ten Football championship in the past decade. Their sole playoff berth came in the 2024 12-team format after losing the most recent Big Ten championship. They’re 3-7 in their last 10 games against the Michigan Wolverines, and 1-9 over the same stretch against the rival Ohio State Buckeyes. Simply put, the Nittany Lions can’t win a big game.
But as the 2025-26 season begins, a discerning observer can see that Penn State’s recent history of shortcomings is their biggest asset. All of college football should be on notice for the 127 men in Happy Valley, because they’re the team to beat this year. Somehow, they perfectly fit the profile of the last four national champions.
The 2022 and 2023 national champion Georgia Bulldogs lost three straight postseason heartbreakers to the Alabama Crimson Tide. The 2024 national champion Michigan Wolverines spent five years being humiliated by Ohio State and two years losing in the College Football Playoff. Those same Buckeyes, the 2025 national champions, lost four straight games to Michigan and three playoff games. These programs broke through right when everyone stopped believing they could. This year’s Nittany Lions have reached that point.
Penn State head coach James Franklin is college football’s foremost loser of big games. In their 11 years under Franklin, the Nittany Lions are 17-26 against top 25 teams and a staggering 1-15 against top five teams. They routinely drop big games without regard for their consistent top-of-the-line talent and elite home field advantage. In spite of fostering premier NFL talents like Saquon Barkley, Micah Parsons, and Chris Godwin, they can’t win for losing. Sound familiar?
This year’s Penn State team returns most of their talent from a 2024 squad that came one bad pass away from the national championship game. Notable names include quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nichalos Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and most of the offensive line and defensive front seven. They’ve reloaded talent at wide receiver and secondary via the transfer portal. Perhaps their only weakness is at the cornerback position, where they return only one starter — but with as manageable a schedule as they’ve been dealt, the cornerbacks will have all the experience they need come postseason ball.
What’s more, despite holding the No. 2 preseason ranking, the Nittany Lions are receiving criminally little national media attention, and it’s perfect for them. Last year’s Ohio State team showed that in the era of a 12-team playoff, all it takes to win the national championship is a foot in the door. That very Ohio State team’s defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles, who is newly a Nittany Lion, can provide them that food in the door. He’s the best in the business, and with him directing the defense, Penn State can and will cruise through an easy schedule. Even if they lose their two big tests against Ohio State and Oregon, Penn State will make the playoff, and when they do, they’ll still be overlooked.
Even in December, national media attention will inevitably center on the bigger brands that will inevitably make the expanded playoff: Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs, Jeremiah Smith’s Buckeyes, Arch Manning’s Texas Longhorns, or Dabbo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers. With no attention comes no pressure, and thereby nothing to lose. Right there in the shadow of the proven programs, the Nittany Lions will be poised to silence the critics and ignite the media on their way to college football gold. This season, the most overlooked No. 2 team in history has a date with destiny: get ready for happy times in Happy Valley.
