President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are most likely to win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, according to many students and faculty.
“This election is about one man, and his name is Donald Trump,” freshman Bradley Haley said. “However, the determining factor of Trump’s success or failure in 2024 will be his ability to shift the focus away from himself and onto the state of the nation under President Biden.”
Professor of Political Economy Gary Wolfram said he was surprised by Biden’s choice to run for reelection.
“I had thought that Biden would step down after one term,” Wolfram said. “He is the oldest sitting president in history at 81 years old and would be 86 if he finished his second term. A recent poll found that 75% of voters think Biden is too old to effectively serve a second term.”
Trump won the Iowa Caucus with 51% of the vote on Jan. 15. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, former South Carolina governor and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, were far behind with 21% and 19% of the vote respectively.
Trump has been charged with 91 criminal offenses, which some states argue disqualifies him from the ballot, a decision the Supreme Court has agreed to review.
Wolfram said he thinks Trump’s overwhelming lead in the polls, despite his criminal charges and absence from debates, is shocking.
“You have a former president who was one of only three presidents to have been impeached, and the only president to have been impeached twice,” Wolfram said. “He has been saddled with numerous legal problems, including whether his actions of January 6, 2021, amounted to insurrection, and yet the party appears ready to nominate him.”
According to sophomore Levi Mendel, chair of the Hillsdale College Republicans, the Department of Justice is using unprecedented methods to prevent Trump from being on the ballot.
“Contesting an election is one thing, attempting to ban a candidate with tremendous popular support is quite another,” Mendel said. “Ironically, those attempting to ‘preserve democracy’ in their own words are the first to resort to banning candidates regardless of the will of the people.”
The lack of a strong third candidate to Trump or Biden surprised Mendel and junior Sam Morse.
“It seems that individuals in both parties, especially young voters, desire a fresh face in The White House,” Morse said, “but the deepening left-right divide and an air of Trump’s ‘unfinished business’ lauded by many Republicans and feared by Democrats have caused voter-bases to double down on the assumed leader of their respective parties.”
Mendel said businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who dropped out of the race after the Iowa Caucus, and DeSantis failed to make a distinction between themselves and Trump, while Haley does not appeal to the voter base.
“Trump has taken a position as America’s foremost anti-establishment politician, leaving little room for DeSantis or Ramaswamy with similar messaging,” Mendel said. “Haley seems to have leaned into her foreign policy experience, but ended up representing the establishment side of the Republican party, a faction which has suffered mightily after the failures of the neoconservatives in the 2000s and 2010s.”
Senior Avery Noel, president of the Hillsdale College Democrats, said he wishes GOP candidates would criticize Trump more openly.
“It’s hugely disappointing and showcases their fear of him as well as their weakness as people that they are unwilling and or unable to tell the truth about him,” Noel said.
Morse said he predicts the 2024 general election will be a 2020 election rematch.
“While many Republican candidates have proven worthy challengers as an alternative voice, Trump’s popularity continues to ride on the success of his past administration, coupled with doubts cast on the validity of the most recent presidential election,” Morse said. “For the Democrats, a legitimate challenger from the left to Biden has yet to make a meaningful push.”
Noel said turnout from Generation Z will determine the results of the election.
“If Gen Z shows out like they did in 2020 and 2022, I see no path for Trump; lower Gen Z turnout due to frustrations with Biden’s policy on Israel and Palestine leave a path for Trump,” Noel said. “President Biden has to be able to tell people how he has bettered the country through policies like the inflation reduction act and the Chips and Science act, as well as remind people of the dangers of Trump.”
Bradley Haley said this election will determine which values will dominate the presidency during the next four years.
“People who believe in the sacredness of unborn life, the freedom of speech, and traditional morality have found an unlikely champion in Donald Trump,” Haley said. “Conversely, President Biden is the face of the leftist establishment that proudly advocates for abortion, transgenderism, and censorship. The underlying worldviews that Trump and Biden represent are what is truly on the ballot.”
