Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s now-independent bid for the White House in 2024 promises to add even more uncertainty to a close race. His candidacy could throw a major wrench — for both Republicans and Democrats — into what current trends indicate would otherwise be a rematch between former president Donald Trump and incumbent, President Joe Biden.

Even though Kennedy comes from a Democratic political dynasty, his candidacy could end up drawing more voters away from Trump’s base than from Biden’s. Polling data shows that he boasts a much higher favorability among Republicans than among members of his own party. Polls aggregated by FiveThirtyEight in July found that 51% of Republicans favor Kennedy, while only 23% do not. More Democrats, on the other hand, view Kennedy unfavorably: 36% see him favorably, while 4% have negative views of him.

It would be in Kennedy’s best interest to campaign on a mix of left- and right-leaning proposals should he wish to coalesce an even mixture of Democratic and Republican voters’ support. Those favorability polls show, though, that he has done a much better job of attracting support from traditionally red circles. His caution against the COVID-19 vaccine and pandemic hysteria, advocacy for ending extensive American military involvement overseas, and opposition to the perceived establishment all seem to fit the Trump-era GOP more than Democratic politics.

While third-party and independent candidates haven’t traditionally garnered extensive support among the American public, our current political circumstances leave Kennedy with the perfect opportunity to buck that trend. Trump and Biden are about equally unfavorable to most Americans, and it’s been that way for some time. Other polls aggregated by FiveThirtyEight measure each candidate’s favorability at around 40 percentage points for mid-October, with both also being around 15 points more unfavorable than favorable. Kennedy’s favorability isn’t much different from either mainstream candidate—it currently rests around 43% — but unlike Trump and Biden, he commands a net favorability of almost 10 points rather than being underwater.

Those statistics reveal that Americans as a whole aren’t confident in either presumptive nominee, and that lukewarm enthusiasm could boost Kennedy’s popularity as a third choice more than would otherwise be impossible. While he was still a candidate in the Democratic primary, Kennedy polled at around 20%. Although he could never win the primary given those margins, they were still impressive against a Democratic incumbent.

Similar polls, this time placing Kennedy in a general election field, show that he could nearly take the same fifth of the popular vote. A Reuters/Ipsos survey released on Oct. 6 found that Kennedy would take around 14 % of the vote in a three-way race. Trump and Biden would win similar margins in the low-thirties.

This data shows that a three-way race might not especially diminish either major candidate’s performance over the other, but that’s if it were held today. Both the Trump and Biden campaigns now have the opportunity to paint Kennedy dissimilar from themselves, with this tactic serving to consolidate their own bases and also split their opposition. Whichever campaign has more success in this regard could turn the Kennedy ticket into nothing but a spoiler for their opponent.

Given Republicans’ much higher approval of Kennedy than Democrats, it would be in the Republican party’s best interest to double down on highlighting the ways in which Kennedy’s views contrast conservative principles. His flip-flopping stances on abortion, liberal environmentalist views, and recent support for reparations all oppose values that most Republicans would expect their own party’s candidate to hold.

Trump, assuming he’ll be the GOP’s 2024 nominee, must tout his administration’s conservative accomplishments just as much as he campaigns on the populist ideals he happens to share with Kennedy. There is only room for one outsider, and Republicans should make it a priority to show the American people that Kennedy is not that man.