America’s pastime is in trouble. Games are stretching longer and the bursts of action seem farther and fewer between. Last week, Major League Baseball took two steps forward and one step back in an attempt to stem its decline.
Last week, the MLB announced three main rule changes for next season— each of which have been tested in the minor leagues in recent years. Their first move: expand the bases from 15 inches square to 18 inches. Second, institute a pitch clock to speed up the game. Finally, ban fielders from shifting out of position to better defend against a pull hitter — a player who tends to hit the ball to the same side of the field they bat from.
Two cheers, but not three, for the new changes to baseball.
One cheer for bigger bases expanded for safety and increased action. Players now have an extra 3 inches square to avoid collisions, especially at first base. A bunt down the first base line has often set up dangerous plays for the first baseman and the fielder. The extra leeway should give offensive and defensive players more room to maneuver on those tight plays.
But bigger bases will also invite more action. Baseball is a game of inches, and with first and second base 4.5 inches closer to each other, stolen bases are expected to marginally increase. With larger bases in the minors this season, steal attempts per game increased by 27% compared to 2019. The success rate also increased from 68% to 77%. In the majors, players stole 1000 fewer bases last year than they did ten years ago, a 33% decline. In a game that could use some more exciting, bang-bang plays, I’d love to hear the broadcaster say “runner goes” 27% more often.
The basepaths will be shorter, and so will the games. The average length of a nine-inning game reached a record three hours and ten minutes last year. Yeah, no bueno. New MLB rules will require pitchers to begin their motion only 15 seconds after stepping on the pitching rubber when runners aren’t on base, and 20 seconds with baserunners. The batter is on a timer too: he needs to be “alert to the pitcher” after only 8 seconds.
It’s worked so far. With the pitch clock ticking every at-bat, the average minor league game lasted only two hours and 38 minutes, a decrease of a whopping 26 minutes compared to the year before. Could we start seeing a large chunk of games under 2.5 hours next season? Let’s hope.
Yet the new changes aren’t all rainbows and unicorns. MLB’s final change, banning the shift, runs directly against the nature of the game. Under current rules, all fielders — except the catcher — may position themselves anywhere in fair territory. A smart defense will shift almost all of their fielders to one side of the field if a pull hitter comes to the plate. Joey Gallo is a prime example: he pulls or hits up the middle almost 90% of the time.
In the words of Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay, the MLB has decided to “legislate against smart.” All four infielders will be required to have both feet on the infield dirt, and two must be on each side of second base. No shifts, no four-outfielder-formations, almost no positional strategy to better defend against the Gallo’s of the game.
Shifting adds an element to baseball that can excite the fan who watches actively, not passively. The joy of baseball comes from the theater of the mind, where fans and players alike can wonder about and strategize for the next play. Is this a sacrifice fly opportunity? What about a bunt in this scenario? Will the batter pull the ball? Do you shift the infield, then? The soul of the sport is not material, but mental.
The slow death of that mental, strategic element of baseball will gradually suck the soul out of the sport. You are soon left with an insipid spectacle of thwacks and thumps, like watching The Office just for the slapstick humor – you miss most of the show.
MLB has decided to suffocate the strategic side of the game in order to bail out hitters who can’t slap the ball oppo. Here’s a timeless piece of advice to the pull hitters: learn to hit it where they ain’t.
One other change that seeks to speed up the pace of play should quickly be mentioned. Pitchers will be limited to three pickoff attempts per at bat. If on the third, the pitcher is unsuccessful, the runner is given the next base. The rule may increase stolen bases, but it may also have little effect – few pitchers are frequently picking off three times in one at-bat. Fans should remain skeptical, for now.
If it hopes to remain popular, MLB will eventually have to fix its ultimate problem: the game is owned by strikeouts, walks, and home runs, also known as the “Three True Outcomes”. 1 in 3 at-bats last year ended in one of the TTOs.
There’s no clear solution yet. Adjust the field? Maybe. Lower the mound? Sure. Keep the sticky stuff off pitchers’ hands? Absolutely. Everyone should be open to suggestions.
With all this being said, MLB is 2 for 3 this time around. A step in the right direction, yes. But let’s hope there are more to come.