After the nearly 14-year-long war in Afghanistan, the IntelCenter’s Country Threat Index recently named Afghanistan the fifth- most dangerous place in the world. Even though America’s combat mission ended in Dec. 2014, keeping U.S. forces at their current level will help secure Afghanistan’s future through training and equipping the Afghan forces to deal with these challenges.
Despite ongoing violence in Afghanistan, President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah have made promising changes in their first six months in office. Given the progress in Afghanistan, problems in Pakistan, and chaos in Iraq, President Obama’s decision to maintain troop levels through 2015 should be commended.
First, prosecuting notoriously corrupt officials in the Kabul Bank, beginning to reform the election commission system, establishing a National Unity Government, and improving regional relations are a few examples of President Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah’s commitment to creating a stable Afghanistan. While in the U.S., they expressed visions of modern health care, infrastructure, and education system. Indeed, “the story of Afghanistan’s path to self-reliance is already started,” President Ghani told Congress on March 25.
Their story of progress, however, is not finalized. While President Ghani outlined the need for diplomacy, strengthening Afghanistan’s military forces, and national reconciliation, there is also the need for the stabilizing force of continuing U.S. military presence. As Afghanistan looks to negotiate with the Taliban from the a point of strength while simultaneously reforming the electoral process, the added security of America’s 9,800 troops now will better equip the National Unity Government to face the inevitable challenges of the future.
Furthermore, Pakistan is beginning to realize that it cannot support some terrorist organizations while combating others. Pakistan has cracked down since the attack on the Peshawar school, but only on Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Engaging with Pakistan and pressuring it not to tolerate any terrorist activity must be a priority for Afghanistan and the U.S. if the fight against insurgent groups is to succeed. Sanctions, suspended aid, and travel bans should be used to pressure Pakistan to get serious about fighting all terror; but until that happens, military presence continuing to assist Afghan security forces will be critical to maintaining stability.
Finally, and most important, there is a lesson to be learned from the deterioration in Iraq. While failing to see the underlying problems with the Maliki government, Obama withdrew troops from Iraq too soon because he was too focused on ending the war. Not to say that ISIS is an immediate threat in Afghanistan — there is no evidence supporting that — but Iraq serves as a warning to premature withdrawal based on political calculations rather than recognizing the reality of Iraq’s masked-over instability.
Afghanistan, while moving in a positive direction, is still fragile and vulnerable to collapse. Delaying the reduction of troops would not only help the National Unity Government achieve better stability, but would also allow for major problems to be addressed without the complete lack of a safety net. If Afghanistan collapsed into a terrorist safe haven again, it would exacerbate Pakistan’s problem with terrorists to the South while erasing all signs of progress in education, health, and human rights.
The United States should not stay in Afghanistan forever — nor do Afghans want us to — but withdrawal should be based on when Afghanistan is strong enough to stand on its own, not an arbitrary date. Keeping troop levels where they are now is just the first step; the U.S. should encourage Afghanistan’s leaders to keep pursuing reforms and, most important, keep them accountable.
On March 26, Chief Executive Abdullah spoke at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C., where he discussed the positive changes in the U.S.-Afghanistan partnership since the National Unity Government took over. He said the U.S. “has helped us more than any other country in the world” and “lives of millions of people have changed for better.” With his and Ghani’s shared vision of a self-sufficient Afghanistan, he said that “I will never underestimate the challenges ahead of us. But also look at the opportunities. The opportunities are endless.”
