Voting trends depend on how individuals believe the people around them will vote, guest speaker Tamas Bodor said in a lecture Oct. 31.

Bodor, a Hungarian researcher and professor, teaches professional communications at the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point. In his speech, titled “Before the Court of Public Opinion: Tyranny, Dissent, and the Spiral of Silence.” 

Bodor said the media is a part of the “spiral of silence” phenomenon that asserts individuals often make decisions based on what they perceive their peers to believe.

“We humans fear isolation, so we monitor the environment,” Bodor said. “Depending on what we sense, we adjust our opinion based on what we have seen. The process will go forward, and a feedback loop emerges. The moment you react to the climate opinion by silence or speaking out, you’re changing the climate.”

 Polling, Bodor said, is one of the most consequential industries in the world because the perception of the political climate culminates in surveys and polling.

“What we don’t consider very often is that, probably, our entire society hinges upon polls,” Bodor said. 

Bodor gave examples of both the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Labor Statistics who use surveys and polls to configure interest and unemployment rates.

The only thing that validates polls is election results, according to Bodor. 

“What the record shows is that, if you look at the last 40-50 years, polls were not that bad,” Bodor said. “The average prediction error seems to be maybe two to three points.” 

According to Bodor, popular media plays a part in the inaccuracy of polls through its own portrayal of public opinion, even if it is not a true reflection of reality. 

Professor of Rhetoric and Public Address Kirstin Kiledal said that she found the misunderstanding of public opinion and the resulting polling inaccuracy to be the most interesting aspect of Bodor’s speech. 

“We’ve been misthinking our causes and motivations behind public opinion as a kind of aggregate concept,” Kiledal said. 

Senior Sarah McKeown said she enjoyed Bodor’s talk. 

“I will continue to reflect upon the power of public opinion to distort truth,” McKeown said, “Even Christ was praised by those who would nail him to the cross only days later.”