Overrated:
Roskopp: Marquette never seems to be able to follow up a good regular season with a run in the tournament, and there is no reason to believe that will change this year. Coming in as a No. 2 seed again this year, it would not be a shock to see the Golden Eagles bow out before the first weekend is over. With a possible matchup with Colorado in the second round, it would not come as a surprise if Marquette gets upset by another No. 10 seed as they did last year.
Papillon: Purdue will need to prove itself after a humiliating defeat to 16th-seed Fairleigh Dickinson University last year. Senior center Zach Edey is a force, averaging 24.4 points per game, but, as FDU proved last year, he can’t carry the team alone. The Boilermakers’ offense is solid, scoring an average of 83.4 points per game, but its defense is only slightly above average, allowing an average of 70.2 points per game. If they face a team with an equally strong offense, such as Gonzaga, their defensive liability may be difficult to overcome.
Underrated:
Roskopp: James Madison stands out as a possible Cinderella team this year. The Dukes are one of three teams with more than 30 wins this season. They take care of the basketball, averaging just 10 turnovers a game. Plus, their star in the making, Terrence Edwards Jr., shoots the ball at an impressive 42% from the field.
Papillon: It may seem funny to consider a No. 5 seed team underrated, but the Saint Mary’s Gaels are a sleeper team in this tournament. Their 58.7 points allowed per game is among the lowest in the NCAA. Houston is the only other team in the tournament that allows fewer points per game. Fifth seeds historically have a tough time in the tournament, but if the Gaels can get their offense together for a few games, they will be a tough team to beat.
Who Wins?
Roskopp: After getting routed in the Big 12 Conference championship game, the Houston Cougars added fuel to their fire as they prepare to make a run in the big dance. Houston’s stellar defense is ranked number one in the country for efficiency. With veteran coach Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars will be ready to go.
Papillon: Houston’s defense has allowed fewer than 60 points per game for four straight seasons, and is first in the NCAA with 57 points allowed per game this season. Senior guard Jamal Shead averaged 13.1 points per game and was first in the NCAA in defensive win shares this season with 3.1. Houston has three of the top four players in the NCAA by defensive rating with Shead, senior forward J’Wan Roberts, and junior forward Ja’Vier Francis. If the defense is working, the offense won’t have to do much for Houston to be nearly unstoppable.