Voters in the New Hampshire primaries awarded victories to the two second place finishers from the Iowa Caucuses.
In the New Hampshire Republican primary, the polls put GOP presidential frontrunner Donald Trump’s victory as a foregone conclusion because of his 17-point lead over his competitors — the real fight was for second place. On the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, positioned himself for a 13-point victory over Clinton, according to the Real Clear Politics New Hampshire primary average, but he overshadowed her with a 22-point win.
Republicans Florida Sen. Marco Rubio,Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush battled for second place in New Hampshire to secure the support of the Republican establishment.
Rubio’s campaign claimed he positioned himself well for a second place finish in New Hampshire, when he exceeded expectations in the Iowa Caucus. His poll numbers indicated he would take second place in New Hampshire, but Rubio faltered in ABC’s Feb. 6 Republican presidential debate. Rubio said in a press conference after the primary the debate “didn’t help” his chances in New Hampshire.
Kasich took second place with a respectable five-point victory over Rubio and Bush. Kasich took 16 percent of the vote compared to Bush’s approximately 11 percent and Rubio’s 10.6 percent.
“Kasich goes nowhere after this,” Assistant Professor of Politics Adam Carrington said.
Carrington said he thought the Republican establishment support could shift to either Rubio or Bush after New Hampshire, but since Kasich won, it is still undecided.
“The establishment vote will continue to be split between Rubio and Bush when South Carolina comes, and the next debate could decide to whom the momentum shifts,” Carrington said.
Cruz took third place. His tea party-conservative block of the Republican Party naturally flocked to him without much of a fight from the rest of the candidates, according to Carrington.
On the heels of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina’s sixth and seventh place finishes respectively in New Hampshire, they suspended their campaigns Wednesday, Feb. 10.
“I think the most natural place for Christie and Fiorina’s supporters will be with Rubio,” Carrington said.
Carson, who took a distant eighth place in New Hampshire with only two percent of the popular vote will continue to campaign in South Carolina.
The winners of the New Hampshire primary, Trump and Sanders, have a lot of similarities, according to Assistant Professor of Economics Chris Martin.
In a similar vein, Martin said Trump’s support comes from a frustration with cronyism but specifically directed at foreign nations.
“Trump applies a zero-sum mentality to international trade,” Martin said. “A lot of Sanders’ support comes from an anger rightly directed at crony capitalism but conflated with free markets.”
