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GOP presidential contender Donald Trump is a favorite among the Hillsdale politics department along with Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.
Presidential candidates will get their first chance to hear from voters during the Iowa caucuses on Monday, Feb. 1, and the Hillsdale politics professors, however, have already started making their predictions on how it will turn out.
Mickey Craig, politics department chair, said the Iowa caucuses are historically accurate for choosing who will become president and often change the polls drastically.
“Iowa has been good at picking presidents,” Craig said. “Obama won Iowa in 2008 and 2011; George W. Bush won Iowa in 2000 and 2004. Clinton did not win in 1992 because Tom Harkin, the senior senator from Iowa ran in 1980. George H.W. Bush finished first and Reagan second, and in 1976, Jimmy Carter won Iowa. So, for close to 40 years, Iowa almost always picks the president.”
While many past presidents have done well in Iowa, it still possesses the worst record of selecting presidential nominees compared to any other state, choosing four losers since 1976. According to Assistant Professor of Politics Adam Carrington, this has much to do with the population of Iowa itself.
“Iowa hasn’t been a strong indicator in part because its composition, especially in the GOP primary, isn’t that representative of the national electorate,” Carrington said. “But it does still matter. It is the first time we actually hear from the voters, not just pundits and polls. It does help in clarifying the choices by revealing some candidates’ campaigns as not viable.”
Assistant Professor of Politics John Grant said voters should be concerned with candidates who normally appeal to a demographic similar to Iowa but fall short in the polls.
“Candidates relying heavily on the evangelical vote who do poorly are in deep trouble,” Grant said. “If Cruz or Rubio do badly, that is a terrible sign for them given their appeal to that demographic.”
Craig said if the top two front-runners, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Donald Trump, don’t show well, it could jeopardize their campaign, but they may also garner support from more obscure candidates.
“If either Cruz or Trump don’t finish in the top two in Iowa that will harm their candidacy greatly,” Craig said. “Iowa certainly winnows the field, especially a large field like the GOP has this year. So, it is likely that Huckabee and Santorum will drop out and endorse Cruz after Iowa.”
However, Professor of Politics Thomas West said the semantics of Iowa and who will drop out of the race are insignificant because of Trump’s consistent lead in the polls.
“It doesn’t matter who stays and who drops out. It’s probably over. Trump is likely to be our next president,” West said. “Trump wins Iowa, he will probably win every primary and the nomination. If Trump loses Iowa, same result. The Trump phenomenon is a once-in-a-lifetime event. No candidate since Reagan has motivated the forgotten part of the electorate in the way Trump has, and he’s doing it even more effectively than Reagan did.”
Carrington said Trump has secured a demographic primarily by separating the party while Cruz attempts to consolidate it.
“Trump is trying to forge a new coalition on a new paradigm that pits working class voters against perceived elites from both parties,” Carrington said. “Cruz speaks in this way too, but still keeps ‘the people’ as conservative voters. Trump’s coalition isn’t really conservative but draws pretty widely across the spectrum, including many moderate to left-leaning voters but not necessarily more conservative.”
Craig said if he were voting in a primary today, he would cast his ballot for Cruz, but regardless of party affiliation, this caucus will be one of the most interesting in recent years.
“The exciting thing about this election is that both parties have large segments of their base who are very, very angry at the establishment,” Craig said. “Witness Sanders challenge Hillary and Jeb Bush’s poor showing, but the establishment/empire will strike back at some point.”
