DeSantis should not run in 2024. Courtesy | Flickr
Despite the support that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has built for a Republican presidential campaign, he should not run in 2024 – he should run in 2028, when Donald Trump has exited the political world.
If DeSantis decides to run now, he only serves to split the Republican party and then lose to the Democrats in the general election.
In a recent CNN poll, Trump is the Republican party’s top choice, garnering 40% support among likely Republican voters and Republican leaning independents, even after his scandals and allegations of insurrection.
The current governor of Florida will lose because he cannot style himself as both the next Trump and the “not Trump.”
If DeSantis wishes to run for the nomination, he cannot both appeal to the MAGA base and the so-called “never-Trumpers.” The first group will not view him as tough on issues and the second group will condemn him for being too tough on those same issues.
Without Trump, the allure of DeSantis would cease to exist. Most of the latter’s supporters are people who view him as Trump Lite, or Trump without the bad combover, fake tan, and mean tweets.
But this begs the question: with Trump in the 2024 presidential race, why would the MAGA base vote for DeSantis? If he really wishes to sweep away that voting bloc he should run in 2028 as Trump’s heir.
In other words, Trump walked so DeSantis could toddle.
The MAGA base is the framework of the Republican party; no one is a serious candidate if he or she has not been endorsed by Trump or worked in the Trump administration. Other possible contenders for the presidential nomination, such as former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence, would not be politically relevant today if they did not have connections to Trump.
Yet neither Pence or Haley offer fresh solutions to the current political climate. According to an NBC News piece by Allan Smith, Haley called for America to stop its “self-loathing” in regards to the issue of race, in addition to voter ID for citizens. These views are mainstream, insofar as they are baseline attitude and policy proposals, but they are not groundbreaking and they do not address the main concerns which most Republican voters have about the future of the country.
Other candidates aside, DeSantis himself is not a compelling one if he runs in the general elections as “not Trump.” The Republican party cannot run on what, or who, it is not.
The elites – both on the right and the left – fear Trump’s run so much that they want to arrest a former president, something which has never happened before in history. What other president has ever experienced such vitriol, such hatred coming from the establishment?
If the establishment hates him so much, it is a testament to his effectiveness as a leader in the Republican party, rather than something Republicans should fear.
Even the headlines reflect this phenomenon: the only notable candidate at the Conservative Political Action Conference, otherwise known as CPAC, was Trump. The Wall Street Journal published an article with this sub-headline: “The former president still commands loyalty at the Conservative Political Action Conference.”
Anecdotally, this remains to be true. Most Republican and conservative voters don’t use DeSantis as the frame of reference when considering other candidates. They use Trump.
If Trump commands the loyalty of the party, then he should be the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election.
Let Trump walk in 2024, so DeSantis can run in 2028.
