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Hillsdale residents should prepare for a winter laden with more snow and sub-zero temperatures than usual, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s prediction.
A colder winter could adversely affect Hillsdale’s farming industry by increasing farmers’ risk of losing crops.
“When you plant in the spring, sometimes it’s really good, and other times the ground is still frozen,” Hillsdale farmer Glenn Frobel said. “You’ve got to trust it. It’s like a science for people who don’t know anything about science.”
Frobel said he has trusted the Almanac’s predictions since he was 12 years old. The Almanac, however, isn’t the only source predicting a cold winter, according to Frobel. Another telltale sign of an approaching harsh winter is the behavior of his animals, Frobel said.
“My chickens have gone into a feeding frenzy, and usually that means they’re storing up. The hawks are a little early to move, but they’re starting to cattle up and migrate. Even the hummingbirds have left a little early,” Frobel said. “It’s going to be cold and snowy. The animals are on a different page because they have to live in it.”
Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, is also predicting a cold winter for Michigan. According to Cohen, a thicker Siberian snowpack is expected to weaken the polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex will then draw cold air down from the arctic and into the U.S. instead of flooding the country with warm air from the Pacific Ocean. If so, the influx of colder air could drive winter temperatures down.
“We are predicting colder-than-normal temperatures,” Cohen said. “It takes a unique situation to get a cold winter. If anybody’s predicting a cold winter, it’s going out a bit on a limb, but that’s what I see so far.”
If Cohen’s predictions are accurate, farmers will have to cope with a harsher winter, which could mean trouble for crops. Although a long winter is not adverse to most crops, extreme cold can kill several trees and fruit crops, according to Hillsdale farmer Burnell Pickell.
“Depending on how cold it is, we might not have a crop. Last year was easy, but this year, who knows?” Tom Kolasa, manager at K’s Orchid, said. “It makes a difference on how tough the springs are. If they are cool, damp, and the bees don’t come out and pollinate, all bets are gone.”
For dairy farmer Ali Ferry, a colder winter will add an extra layer of work to the maintenance of the farm.
“It’s hard on the animals. It’s hard on the employees. They’re out in it a lot, and so are we,” Ferry said. “You can imagine what it’s like, when it’s cold and windy and snowy and you are in it for extended periods of time every day.”
Whether the Almanac’s prediction is accurate or not, it will not decide how most farmers prepare for winter, said Kim Kerr, the south regional representative of the Michigan Farm Bureau.
“Agriculture is different from other industries—it is very much impacted by the weather, and we want to be able to minimize that risk. There are some million dollar decisions that are made on putting in a crop and harvesting a crop,” Kerr said. “There are a lot of farmers that look at the Almanac, but do they rely on it? No.”