Michigan heads toward a very blue November

Home Opinion Michigan heads toward a very blue November
Michigan heads toward a very blue November
Michigan’s Capitol Building | Pixabay

2020: the year that perpetually seems to throw a wrench in voters’ plans. For a single year, we have seen a major foreign policy crisis in the middle east with Iran, an impeachment, a global pandemic, an economic slowdown, and a flare-up in racial tensions. 

Competitive Michigan elections — such as the race for the U.S. Senate and 11th District in the House of Representatives — will be directly tied to which presidential nominee wins the state. The 11th District, which is composed of the outer Detroit area and surrounding suburbs, is primarily made up of middle-class white Americans. While Trump won the district in 2016, it was taken by Democrats in 2018. If Republicans want to capture higher offices, they must win the 11th District.

With November estimated to have the highest voter turnout in Michigan history, polls collected from FiveThirtyEight predict that the state will re-elect its Democratic officials. However, many do not believe pollsters after President Trump’s poll-defying win in 2016. Ultimately, three variables will decide which way Michigan swings: absentee ballots, election turnout, and social conditions.

Absentee ballots will play a pivotal role in November, as the state is expecting around 2.4 million votes to be delivered through absentee ballots. However, the counting of these ballots could cause issues.

According to the Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), “we should be prepared for this to be closer to an election week as opposed to an Election Day.” This will have huge ramifications in the ability of election officials to canvass the results.

Since Michigan requires election officials to process absentee ballots no sooner than Election Day, there will definitely be a backlog of votes. 

Just the ability to send in an absentee ballot will increase overall turnout for the election, which will increase the number of votes for Democratic candidates. Historically speaking, according to the Michigan state elections archive, when there has been a higher than usual turnout percentage in Michigan, the state votes primarily Democrat.  

In 2018, the Democrats took an unenthused electorate in the midterm election by obtaining an unprecedented 55.1% voter turnout. Riding on anti-Trump sentiments, they gained a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and captured the state’s governorship. This is not the only example. In 2008, former president Barack Obama captured Michigan’s 16 electoral votes by generating an unprecedented 66% voter turnout. Therefore, with more ballots in circulation this year, the overall turnout will increase, and Democrats will benefit.

The highly-charged nature of this election is the third deciding factor. The current status quo of the COVID-19 pandemic and racially-charged riots in major cities also increase Democratic voter turnout. If the economy fails to recover, union workers will likely vote Democrat in an attempt to protect their wages and jobs. If the racially-charged riots continue, these same actors will turn out in droves to advocate for sympathetic Democratic candidates who will implement the same radical agenda they advocate for. Thus, if the current status quo does not change, it will likely result in a Biden win. 

The social and environmental issues in this year’s election cycle are likely to decide whether or not voters show up to the polls. As it stands, Democrats on Capitol Hill are trying their best to keep the status quo by refusing to negotiate on meaningful racial reform, a smaller COVID-19 stimulus package, and most of all their demagoguery of Trump. What do they stand to gain from compromise? Another four years of Trumpism? No, they would rather take their chances on an election that is stacked in their favor. 

So long as the status quo does not change, we are headed towards a very blue November for the state of Michigan. Absentee ballots and social issues will drive up the voter turnout, which will cause a larger electoral percentage for Democrats.

 

Josh Hypes is a freshman studying politics.